Since the war began in November, reports suggest, some 20,000 ex-Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) Tigrayans and 7,000 police officers have been detained.ĭefections and detentions, which have included Tigrayan troops serving in the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and in UN peacekeeping forces in South Sudan, have seriously damaged the army's morale and capability. A purge of Tigrayans from the armed forces has accelerated in the past three years, and encompasses rank-and-file soldiers and police too. He introduced changes in training to try and remove Tigrayan influence, and expanded recruitment in 20. It's in that light that analysts now look at Abiy's creation of his Republican Guard unit, and the rebuilding of the air force in 2018-19. The removal of his bête noire, the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), leads him to believe his dream can become reality. He has long dreamed of federation and raised it first in 1993. This has certainly long been on Issayas's wishlist. Everything could be shared on the way to complete integration, he said. This looks much less like flowery rhetoric now.Ībiy even told the World Economic Forum at Davos in January 2019 that there was no need to have different armies in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti. At the time, Abiy described Addis Ababa as Issayas's 'own home' while his counterpart said it was foolish 'to assume we are two separate people'. Many suspect the roots of the moves towards unity lie in the still secret provisions of the peace accord Abiy and Issayas signed in July 2018 (AC Vol 59 No 14, From the edge of war to the bridge of love). This would make the Eritrean presence in Tigray legal, and so frustrate the international community's demand for Asmara's troops to leave. Abiy and Issayas are preparing a defence agreement under which Eritrean and Ethiopian troops can operate under each other's officers and in each other's countries. One aspect of the unity idea is in de facto operation as Eritrean armed forces deepen their penetration of Tigray and look set to remain (see Feature, Eritrea entrenches in Tigray).
The idea is to replace the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the premier regional body, with another more directly under their control (AC Vol 62 No 5, Stirring the regional pot). This was simply a curtain-raiser that went wrong.Ībiy and President Issayas Afewerkihave already created the Horn of Africa Council of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia and are looking to get South Sudan to join. It betrays the deeper thinking at work in Addis Ababa and Asmara. Yet this faux pas was certainly signed off by the Foreign Minister, Demeke Mekonnen, who is also Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's deputy. Eritrean embassies and diaspora groups joined the chorus as the ministry hastily retreated and the ambassador 'humbly apologised'. Eritrea is gearing up for its 30th anniversary as a nation and even the United States embassy sprang to its defence, hailing its 'hard-won struggle for independence'. 'It should be inevitable for all the countries of the region.'īarely were the words out of his mouth when a storm of condemnation broke from all sides.
'Who would dislike it, if they are going to unite in a federation?' he asked, as he sang the praises of economic and infrastructural integration followed by political integration. They don't like it.' Ethiopians felt the same, he claimed. Talking about Eritrea's Independence Day, 24 May, Mufti, who is spokesman for Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, 'Each and every Eritrean if asked would admit they don't celebrate the day they separated from Ethiopia.
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Ethiopia and Eritrea may consider a federation as the conflict in Tigray becomes part of a wider reordering of regional geopoliticsĮfforts to float a trial balloon for greater closeness between Eritrea and Ethiopia by Ambassador Dina Mufti at his weekly press conference in Addis Ababa at the end of last month quickly crash-landed.